Pakistan’s powers that be – civilian and military – continue to play games while the country faces a prolonged economic crisis. While many countries around the world are facing inflation, Pakistan has never faced such a three year long bout of sustained rise in inflation.
According to economic journalist, Khurram Hussain, “Pakistan has had bouts of high inflation, with the last one running roughly from early 2008 to 2010 or so, depending on which metrics you use to measure its rise and tapering off. But the most recent bout began in May 2021 and is continuing unabated, despite what the measurement of the Consumer Price Index might be showing.”
Hussain warns “there is no model, no projection and no way of knowing what such prolonged exposure to such intense inflationary pressure can do to a populace. The pressures on household purchasing power are set to intensify further.”
Since 2008, Hussain writes, “Pakistan has been under a virtually continuous stabilisation programme. I say ‘virtually continuous’ for a reason. There were a few years in between, from 2014 till 2017, and again from around 2021 till 2022, when a brief spurt of economic growth passed through our midst. None of those were real. They were fuelled by heavy borrowing, domestic and foreign, and both played a big role in creating the crash that followed.”
Hussain warns, “the state can no longer rely only on its repressive apparatus to keep the consequences of inflation in check. The personnel who staff this apparatus are themselves drawn from the general populace, and it is to the same general populace they return when they go home after performing their duties. Whatever happens to the people happens to them, unless the state tries to use its dwindling resource base to secure these personnel from the depredations of inflation. Doing so leaves less behind for others and makes the situation worse by aggravating the inflationary fire rather than helping put it out.”
In conclusion, Hussain points out “inflation engulfing the country is no longer just an economic problem. It is a danger to the social order. It is not clear when a tipping point will be reached, nor what it will trigger if and when it does arrive.”
